Will home batteries cost more in 2027? Two changes land on 1 January

Probably yes, by a modest amount. Two separate things change on 1 January 2027. The federal battery discount steps down from 6.8 to 5.7 certificates per kWh, and China removes the last of its export tax rebate on batteries, which is likely to lift what the batteries themselves cost. The first is certain and you can work it out today. The second is likely, and nobody can tell you the exact figure. This is what we know as of 6 November 2026.

Change one: the federal discount gets smaller

The Cheaper Home Batteries Program takes money off a battery through small scale technology certificates (STCs). The number of certificates is the battery's usable capacity multiplied by the STC factor for the date it is installed.

• January to April 2026: 8.4 per kWh
• May to December 2026: 6.8 per kWh
• January to June 2027: 5.7 per kWh
• July to December 2027: 5.2 per kWh

It keeps stepping down every six months until it reaches 2.1 in the second half of 2030. So today's 6.8 is not the highest the factor has ever been, that was earlier this year, but it is the highest it will be from here.

In certificates, for a battery installed either side of New Year:

• 10 kWh usable: 68 certificates in 2026, 57 from 1 January. That is 11 fewer.
• 13 kWh usable: 88 certificates in 2026, 74 from 1 January. That is 14 fewer.
• 20 kWh usable: 119 certificates in 2026, 100 from 1 January. That is 19 fewer.

The government's STC Clearing House price is $40 a certificate before GST, and the market price usually sits a little under that. At $40, 14 fewer certificates is $560 less discount on a 13 kWh battery. Our battery rebates article covers the tiers for bigger batteries and who is eligible, including off grid homes.

Change two: China removes its export rebate on batteries

Most home batteries sold in Australia are made in China, or built from cells made there. Chinese manufacturers have been able to claim back part of the value added tax on goods they export, which has kept export prices lower.

On 9 January 2026 China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that the rebate on batteries would be wound back in two steps:

• 1 April 2026: cut from 9% to 6%
• 1 January 2027: removed entirely

The notice covers lithium ion batteries and battery packs. Once the rebate is gone, a manufacturer either wears the extra cost or puts its export price up.

What happened when panels went through the same thing

Solar panels are the precedent. Their export rebate was removed in one step on 1 April 2026. Why Solar, an Australian solar business, says the panel part of system costs went up 9 to 10% straight away and that most quotes had moved within weeks.

Batteries are getting a gentler version, in two steps. The same business puts the April step at roughly 3% on battery imports and expects about another 6% once the rest goes in January. Those are one company's estimates, not ours, and they depend on how much of the change manufacturers pass on.

Lithium is dearer too

The raw material has also moved. Lithium prices in China have been rising since the middle of 2025. In January 2026 Asia Financial reported that lithium carbonate futures had hit their highest level since November 2023 and were up 167% from the low point of 2025.

Lithium is only part of what a battery costs to build, so that does not flow through one for one. It does mean the pressure on cell prices is now upward, after a long run of falling prices.

What this means for the price you pay

A few honest points.

• The discount drop is the sure thing. It is in the regulations, and it applies by the date the battery is installed, not the date you sign.
• The hardware rise is likely, and likely modest. A 6% rise on the battery is $60 on every $1,000 of battery hardware. It does not apply to the install labour, the switchboard work or the cabling.
• It will not all arrive on 1 January. Analysts expect Chinese exporters to ship as much as they can before the deadline. Stock already landed in Australia was bought at the old price, so any rise comes through as new stock arrives.
• The two changes stack. A smaller discount and a dearer battery both push the same way.

Should you get in before Christmas?

If you have already decided on a battery, yes, it is worth having it installed before 31 December. You get the 6.8 factor and you are buying before the export change.

Two cautions. The date that counts is the day the battery is installed and signed off, and December diaries fill quickly. And do not let a date talk you into the wrong battery. The right size for your house and your solar matters more than a few hundred dollars either way. If you are not ready, a well sized battery in February is still a better buy than a rushed one in December.

If you would like us to size one for your place, get in touch and the team will work it out with you.